ELECTION
Number Theory: Is it possible for the BJP to win Uttar Pradesh handily once more?
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Since the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) has emerged victorious in every Uttar Pradesh election. The Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), the two largest regional parties, joining together in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections could not stop it from gaining eighty percent of the seats. This time, the state is devoid of the SP-BSP coalition. The SP now only has the Congress as an ally in the elections as its lesser allies have deserted to join the BJP. Does this mean that the BJP has an easy win in the Uttar Pradesh contest? Although every election is different and the opposition coalitions in Uttar Pradesh have changed often since 2014, the following four questions are based on previous figures that shed light on the Uttar Pradesh race of 2024.
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India
Results of the 2024 Lok Sabha election: V Muraleedharan trails in the Attingal constituency of Kerala
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The Election Commission of India reports that V Muraleedharan, Union minister of state for external affairs, is lagging from Kerala’s Attingal constituency in the Lok Sabha elections.
According to preliminary findings, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) minister is trailing Congress MP Adoor Prakash and Communist Party of India (Marxist) member V Joy. As of 12:20 PM, V Joy has a 432 vote advantage, according to the ECI.
According to the Election Commission of India, V Muraleedharan, the Union minister of state for external affairs, is trailing behind in the Lok Sabha elections from the Attingal constituency in Kerala.
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) minister is lagging behind Congress MP Adoor Prakash and Communist Party of India (Marxist) member V Joy, early results show. As of 12:20 PM, the ECI shows that V Joy is ahead by 432 votes.
Later in 2016, he ran from Kazhakootam in the Kerala State Assembly elections, but CPI (M) leader Kadakampally Surendran won with 7,347 votes.
But he has held a number of posts within the party; from January 2010 until January 2015, he presided over the Kerala state unit. In the 2014 Lok Sabha election, the NDA’s vote share grew to 10.8% under his leadership as the BJP state president of Kerala, marking the first time it has crossed the double digits.
In April 2018, Muraleedharan, who was born into a Congress family in the Communist stronghold of Thalassery, was elected to the Rajya Sabha.
Prior to submitting his nomination for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, a group of students who had been evacuated from Ukraine during the conflict between the Union government and Russia gave him money for his security deposit.
The BJP fielded Sobha Surendran, an Attingal resident, in 2019, and she finished third with 14.43% of the vote. The party’s 2014 candidate, S Girija Kumari, received just 3.95% of the total votes cast.
After the delimitation in 2008, the Attingal Lok Sabha seat was created. On April 26, it held its second phase of elections, with 69.48% of the vote cast.
Beginning on April 19 and ending on June 1, there were seven phases to the Lok Sabha elections for 543 seats. With Narendra Modi as prime minister, the Bharatiya Janata Party is vying for an uncommon third term in power at the Centre.
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India
India is leading in 41 UP seats, and the BJP is leading nationally in 237 constituencies.
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In Uttar Pradesh, which produces the most MPs for the Lok Sabha, the opposition Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) was leading in 41 of the 80 seats. Meanwhile, nationally, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) led in 237 seats, followed by the Congress in 97. In Uttar Pradesh, Samajwadi Party (SP) led in 33 seats, Congress in 8, and BJP in 36.
In Kheri, Union minister Ajay Mishra Teni was behind SP candidate Utkarsh Verma by 15930 votes. In Sultanpur, Rambhual Nishad of the SP was leading Maneka Gandhi of the BJP by 9,192 votes. Dinesh Pratap Singh of the BJP was trailing Rahul Gandhi of the Congress by 50589 votes in Rae Bareli. Congressman KL Sharma was ahead by 19,257 votes over Union minister Smriti Irani.
In Thiruvananthapuram, Union minister Rajeev Chandrasekhar was leading Congressman Shashi Tharoor by 8,401 votes. Omar Abdullah of the National Conference was trailing independent Abdul Rashid Sheikh by roughly 50,151 votes in Baramulla.
Rekha Patra of the BJP, who rose to prominence during protests in West Bengal’s Sandeshkhali, was lagging by more than 42,000 votes in the Basirhat Lok Sabha seat. In West Bengal, the BJP held eight Lok Sabha seats while the Trinamool Congress (TMC) held 32. The BJP had its greatest result in Bengal in 2019 with 18 seats. Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury of Congrress was ahead of his closest TMC opponent in Berhampore.
It looked as though the BJP will win Odisha’s assembly and Lok Sabha elections. Of the 147 assemblies, it was leading on 72 and 18 of the 21 Lok Sabha seats.
In Hijili, Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik was leading, while in the Kantabanji assembly constituency, BJP candidate Laxman Bag was ahead. The BJP was barely missing the 74th percentile in the assembly. With 47 seats, the Biju Janata Dal (BJD) led and the Congress party came in third with 13.
Raj Babbar of the Congress was ahead in the Gurugram Lok Sabha seat following the second round. With 44,000 votes, Rao Inderjit Singh of the BJP was lagging behind.
Three of Mumbai’s six seats were being led by the INDIA alliance member Shiv Sena (Uddhav Bal Thackeray). in two seats, the BJP led by Eknath Shinde, and in one, the Shiv Sena led by him. Piyush Goyal, a union minister from Mumbai North, was in the lead.
In 23 of the 24 seats in Gujarat, the BJP was in the lead. Chandanji Thakor of the Congress led with 137,539 votes in Patan. Following the withdrawal of other contenders, the BJP’s candidate, Mukesh Dalal, was proclaimed the winner in April, securing the Surat seat.
Six out of the seven Lok Sabha seats in Delhi were held by the BJP. By 4293 votes, Congress had the upper hand in the Chandni Chowk seat. The BJP won handily both in the Capital’s Lok Sabha elections in 2019 and 2014.
In Punjab’s Faridkot Lok Sabha constituency, Sarabjeet Singh, the son of assassin Beant Singh, who killed former prime minister Indira Gandhi, was ahead by 19512 votes.
In Uttarakhand, the BJP was in the lead in each of the five seats. Trivendra Singh Rawat, a former chief minister (BJP) was leading on the Haridwar seat.
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India
BJP wants to gain ground in West Bengal and Odisha during the final round of the Lok Sabha elections.
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The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Prime Minister Narendra Modi are making every effort to guarantee that the party wins a sizable portion of the 57 seats where elections are scheduled for June 1 in the last round of the current Lok Sabha polls.
Three rallies in Odisha and one in West Bengal will host speeches by Prime Minister Modi on Wednesday.
The party has been putting a lot of effort into growing its presence and solidifying its control over the political system in both states.
West Bengal saw the BJP win 18 seats in 2019, which was seen as a significant victory for the party that had little local support.
The BJP subsequently started waging a fierce campaign in the state to position itself as an alternative to the ruling TMC.
The party did well in the state’s 2021 assembly votes and went on to win 77 seats thanks to the intense campaign that started in 2019.
The BJP’s Suvendhu Adhikari, a former adviser to chief minister Mamata Banerjee, defeating her in her home borough of Nandigram, was the election’s high point.
Adhikari, who was regarded as Banerjee’s trustee lieutenant, is credited for having contributed to the BJP’s rise in support in the state, which was thought to have nothing in common with the party’s philosophy because it was a communist stronghold.
Now that the BJP is the main opposition in the state, its goal is to increase its number of Lok Sabha seats, which will prepare the way for the assembly elections in 2026.
The BJP hopes to win eight of the 21 Lok Sabha seats in 2019, more than tripling its current total. It also wants to prove that it is qualified to lead the state government.
Similar to West Bengal, where the Congress and Left parties are no longer seen as strong rivals, the BJP has established itself as the Biju Janata Dal (BJD)’s rival in Odisha.
Having won five consecutive terms in assembly elections, the BJD is sure to make a comeback.
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