Global warming caused by humans is rising by 0.26°C per ten years: report

The second annual Indicators of Global Climate Change Report is showing that the pace of increase in global warming caused by humans is 0.26°C per decade, the greatest rate since records have been kept. According to a paper compiled by more than fifty climate experts working under the direction of the University of Leeds, the amount of warming caused by human activity has increased to 1.19°C in the last ten years (2014–2023). It increases by 1.14°C between 2013 and 2022 (as reported in the study from the previous year).

In the multi-data set mean used in the study, the total warming resulting from human activity exceeded the 1850–1900 average by 1.43°C, with a total of 1.3°C recorded last year.

According to the analysis, El Niño and other natural climatic variability contributed to the record temperatures in 2023. According to the estimate, there are only about 200 gigatonnes (billion tonnes) of leftover carbon budget, or how much carbon dioxide may be released before committing to a 1.5°C global warming target. This represents the current emissions for about five years.

The remaining carbon budget for 1.5°C was estimated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2020 to be between 300 and 900 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide, with a middle estimate of 500. Global warming and CO2 emissions have persisted since then. According to the paper, the remaining carbon budget for 1.5°C at the beginning of 2024 was estimated to be between 100 and 450 gigatonnes, with a central estimate of 200.

Although the rise in greenhouse gas emissions has slowed due to climate action, according to Piers Forster, head of the University of Leeds Priestley Centre for Climate Futures, their data indicates that the amount of global heat induced by human activity has continued to increase over the past year. “Global temperatures are still rising faster than ever before and in the wrong direction. The purpose of our investigation is to monitor the long-term patterns brought forth by human activity.

According to Forster, shorter-term natural changes alter this long-term tendency, which in turn produces observed temperatures. “These natural causes were briefly contributing roughly 10% to the long-term warming last year, when observed temperature records were broken.”

The results were released in time for the Bonn Climate Conference, which takes place from June 3 to June 13. The conference is anticipated to establish the framework for this year’s climate negotiations and start talks over a new financing target to replace the current one of $100 billion annually. The purpose of the new financial aim is to direct more funding towards the critically required climate action in developing nations.

Speaking on Monday in Bonn, UN climate chief Simon Stiell warned that without worldwide collaboration urged by the UN, global warming might reach five degrees, a temperature that most of mankind would probably not be able to withstand. Right now, we’re aiming at 2.7 degrees. Reaching our common target of 1.5 will require a long and steep road ahead of us because this is still absurdly high.

The 1.5°C budget is less than it has ever been, according to Joeri Rogelj, a professor of climate science and policy at Imperial College London. This is because of the continuous release of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere and the unprecedented warming that has occurred over the past year. He continued by saying that it is lower than what one would anticipate if prior emissions were simply tallied. “Global warming is currently at 1.3°C; the only way to prevent the planet from warming by another quarter of a degree by 2035 is to significantly reduce greenhouse gas pollution over the next 5 to 10 years.”

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