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Is Joe Biden or Donald Trump? US stock market expert forecasts unexpected outcome of presidential poll based on movement of indices

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Who will win the US election that is set for November 5, 2024? Given the intense rivalry between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, the stock market has historically shown itself to be a trustworthy predictor.

President Joe Biden’s odds of winning re-election vary widely, ranging from less than 38% to as high as 76%, according to recent surveys of well-known prediction markets.

Trump has a 45% chance of winning the poll, compared to Biden’s 44% chance, according to an Economist survey.

The poll prediction’s methodology

In order to obtain understanding of substitute indicators, Mark Hulbert carried out a study that included a range of financial, sentiment, and economic metrics. The real GDP, the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index, the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey, and the U.S. stock market were all included in this analysis, with an emphasis on how each had changed year over year before Election Day.

The stock market was the only one of these indicators to show a statistically significant correlation with the likelihood of victory of the incumbent party at the 95% confidence level.

Analysis results indicate that Joe Biden will win.

His research demonstrates a strong correlation between the stock market’s year-to-date performance and the likelihood that the current party will win the presidency. He demonstrates how this correlation is supported by historical data going back to the Dow Jones Industrial Average’s founding in 1896.

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President Biden’s odds of winning reelection are 58.8% based on this historical correlation and the Dow’s current year-to-date price-only gain of 5.6%. If there are any more gains or losses in the stock market before Election Day, these odds will change appropriately.

Hulbert contends that it’s difficult to make the case that electronic prediction markets have better track records than the stock market, even in the absence of their ambiguity. It is more difficult to identify statistically significant patterns with small sample sizes. As an illustration, the Iowa Electronic Markets (IEM), one of the earliest prediction tools, has only been used in nine presidential elections since its founding in 1988.

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Michigan splash pad attack: A couple was shot seven times in total while defending their two small daughters.

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During the Michigan splash pad incident, a Rochester couple who were defending their young girls were shot seven times in all. Michael William Nash, 42, shot and wounded nine people at the Brooklands Plaza Splash Pad in Rochester Hills before taking his own life.

After being shot seven times in all, Micayla and Eric Coughlin sustained injuries while attempting to shield their two-year-old and seven-month-old girls. The attack happened close to their house on Saturday, June 15, at approximately five o’clock in the evening.

According to a GoFundMe page created for the couple, they were attacked brutally as they brought their kids to the Brooklands Plaza Splash Pad to “enjoy a day with beautiful weather.” After grabbing a child to shield themselves, they were shot and hurt.

The page says, “They walked to the splash pad shortly after getting ice cream, and they weren’t even there for a minute when Micayla and Eric heard gunfire.” “They each grabbed a child to protect them, trying to save their own children.”

Right now, the woman and husband are receiving treatment in a hospital. Noel Wakula, a friend of Micayla’s, organised the campaign, which has asked for donations to support the family with their medical expenses.

The page says, “Their children were protected and able to go home that evening because of their heroic actions.” “After this unimaginable tragedy, Micayla and Eric have a long and unknown recovery ahead of them.”

Three other members of the same family—a 39-year-old lady, an eight-year-old child, and a four-year-old son—were also killed in the catastrophe. A 78-year-old guy who was shot in the abdomen was the oldest casualty.

It is said that Nash had mental health problems. Although his motivation is being looked into, the Detroit Free Press claims he was unrelated to the victims.

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Netizens express embarrassment at confused Joe Biden being escorted off stage by Barack Obama at an event in Los Angeles.

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In a widely shared video, Joe Biden appeared to freeze up on stage at a Los Angeles fundraiser, and former president Barack Obama was seen helping him off. The altercation happened following Biden and Obama’s 45-minute appearance at the Peacock Theatre for a late-night chat with Jimmy Kimmel.

The men can be seen in the footage standing for applause at the star-studded event. Biden seemed to fix his gaze on the audience for ten seconds or more before Obama walked him off the stage and grabbed his wrist. The New York Post reports that the Biden campaign was able to raise almost $30 million at the event. At the occasion were famous people including Barbra Streisand, Julia Roberts, and George Clooney.

“There is no way that this is the head of the free world.”
“No offence… But I’ll never understand why old folks, and I mean rich old men and women just can’t leave politics alone and simply go on about their lives and enjoy EVERY bit of it until the last day,” wrote one of the many comments on the above video that British broadcaster Piers Morgan shared on social media. Too wealthy to be making themselves look bad on national television like this. One person remarked, “Clearly President Obama seems to have stepped in and taken command,” while another said, “They’re simply going to carry on pretending that it’s not happening and continue promoting Biden as “Sharp, dynamic, and full of vigour.”

“Why does Obama appear to be dragging out Biden as some elderly statesman to smile and wave at the crowd? One user said, “This cannot possibly be the leader of the free world,” and another commented, “It’s hard not to feel sorry for Biden.” The elderly boy has to be taken care of and removed from the spotlight by someone. A user said, “It’s so embarrassing that they have allowed this to continue.”

Some people, meanwhile, expressed sympathy for Biden’s poor performance. Would you send him shopping with a list to the nearby stores and expect him to return home if he were your father? It is inhumane. One commenter said, “They are embarrassing him by letting this continue. “I’m sure mainstream media will cry about “camera angles” and “framing” again,” another person commented. Elder abuse is something that must be acknowledged.

In fact, one user went so far as to say he thought the incident was being exaggerated and that Biden had not actually frozen up. “I was present there. In the front row, I witnessed three young people yelling at President Biden. @President Biden did not clam up when trying to listen. Seemingly prepared to reply, Now incorrect news is spreading. Sharing my perspective,” the user wrote.

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Saudi Arabia: As the temperature approaches 48 degrees, 14 Jordanian Hajj pilgrims have died.

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Because of the intense heat and prolonged heatwave that pervaded Saudi Arabia during the Hajj, at least 14 Jordanian pilgrims have perished and 17 more are missing. During the Hajj pilgrimage, fourteen Jordanian pilgrims perished and seventeen more went missing, according to the foreign ministry of Jordan. According to the statement, its citizens died “after suffering a stroke due to the extreme heat wave.”

The Jordanian foreign ministry stated in a statement that it was working with the Saudi authorities to arrange for the burial or transfer of the remains of the deceased in accordance with the family’s requests.

Five Iranian pilgrims’ deaths were also confirmed by the Iranian Red Crescent, however the cause of their deaths was not disclosed, according to news agency AFP. Regarding the deaths, Saudi authorities haven’t yet made an official comment.

In the holy town, the temperature has surpassed 40 degrees Celsius (104 degrees Fahrenheit) and is expected to hit 47 degrees on Monday.

As part of their efforts to reduce heat, the Saudi authorities have established numerous climate-controlled rooms. Along with giving out water, they counsel pilgrims on sun protection techniques. Additionally, the Saudi health ministry sent a warning advising pilgrims to avoid the warmest parts of the day outside and to stay hydrated.

One of the world’s biggest mass gatherings is the Hajj. Saudi officials claim that around 1.8 million pilgrims are participating this year. Over the last 30 years, hundreds of deaths have occurred at the festival due to stampedes, tent fires, heat, and other causes.

At least 240 persons, many of whom were from Indonesia, lost their lives during the Hajj pilgrimage in 2018. The death toll was reported by several nations, although the causes of death were not given. Heat stroke affected more than 2,000 pilgrims on the journey.

Hajj for this year would conclude on Wednesday.

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