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Israeli soldiers advance further north into Rafah in Gaza

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In order to retake a region where they had claimed to have destroyed Hamas months before, Israeli soldiers advanced further into the ruins of Gaza’s northern frontier on Monday. Meanwhile, at the other end of the territory, tanks and infantry advanced over a highway into Rafah.

Thousands of Palestinians have fled once more as a result of the fierce fighting that has been occurring on Gaza’s northern and southern borders for several weeks. Relief organisations fear that the situation might quickly get worse.

Israel maintained that such operations had always been part of its plan and explained its most recent return to the north, where it withdrew the majority of its forces five months ago, as part of a “mop-up” stage of the battle to stop fighters from returning. Palestinians claim that Israel’s military goals are unachievable since the country must continue fighting among the remains of earlier conflicts.

Tanks drove into the centre of the neighbourhood in the vast Jabalia, the largest of Gaza’s eight camps established seventy-five years ago to accommodate Palestinian refugees from what is now Israel. The camp’s core was being hit by tank rounds, according to the residents, and some buildings had been damaged by airstrikes.

On Sunday, thick plumes of black smoke from explosions were visible rising over the northern part of Gaza from the Israeli border.

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Israeli forces are attempting to destroy Hamas, which has declared its intention to destroy Israel. According to Israeli estimates, the extremist organisation invaded Israel on October 7 and killed 1,200 people while capturing over 250 captives.

Gaza health experts estimate that more than 35,000 Palestinians have died in the conflict, and they worry that many more are buried beneath the debris. The Gaza Health Ministry warned in a statement on Monday that the medical system is on the verge of collapsing owing to a scarcity of gasoline to power generators and ambulances. The conflict has destroyed the coastal enclave and created a serious humanitarian catastrophe.

Health officials in Palestine said on Monday that they had found 20 dead and several injured Palestinians from the airstrikes that occurred overnight on Jabalia.

Israel increased air and ground bombardments on the eastern parts of Rafah, Gaza, targeting the Egyptian border fence. An airstrike on a house in the Brazil neighbourhood resulted in casualties.

Hundreds of thousands of people, the majority of whom are already displaced, fled for new shelters after Israel issued an order last week for inhabitants to leave the city’s east and, in more recent days, expanded it to include central regions.

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Residents reported that tanks had blocked the major Salahuddin Road, which runs north-south and separates the eastern and central parts of the city, and that Israeli air and ground shelling was getting worse.

Bassam, 57, of the Shaboura neighbourhood of Rafah stated, “The tanks cut the Saladuddin road east of the city, the forces are now in the southeast side, building up near the built-up area, the situation is dreadful and the sounds of explosions never stopped.”

“People continue to leave Rafah, even far away near the western areas as no place looks safe now and also because people do not want to escape at the last minute should tanks make sudden incursions and moving out becomes too late,” he said using a messaging app for Reuters.

Since the Israeli military issued its initial order to evacuate the southern city one week ago, UNRWA, the primary United Nations relief organisation in Gaza, estimated that over 360,000 Palestinians had left the area.

Shipment of bombs halted

For the first time since the start of the conflict, Israel’s primary ally, the United States, has severed ties with Israel because to the attack on Rafah, resulting in one of the worst rifts in centuries. Washington has stated that Israel cannot attack Rafah unless it has a strategy in place, which it has not yet seen, to safeguard residents there.

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The American ambassador to Israel, Jack Lew, gave a hint on Sunday that Washington still views the Rafah incursion as reasonable.

Lew told Israel’s Channel 12 TV, “The president was clear in the interview he gave the other evening that what Israel has done so far hasn’t crossed over into the area where our disagreements lie,” without going into detail about what that area includes.

“I’m hoping we don’t end up with real disagreement.”

According to the armed wing of Hamas, gunfights between Israeli soldiers and its members were taking place on a street east of Rafah and in Jabalia.

The Israeli military repeatedly activated sirens in the vicinity of Gaza to alert the public of possible cross-border rocket and/or mortar attacks by Palestinians.

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In a joint statement, Hamas and the armed branch of Islamic Jihad announced that they had fired mortar bombs against Israeli soldiers assembling inside the Rafah crossing, the only port of entry between Gaza and Egypt that Israel had taken control of last week.

The Israeli military claimed late on Saturday that troops stationed in Jabalia were keeping Gaza’s ruling Hamas group from regaining its military strength there.

Saed, 45, a resident of Jabalia, told Reuters via a chat app on Sunday, “They were bombing everywhere, including near schools that are housing people who lost their houses.” “War is restarting, this is how it looks in Jabalia.”

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Donald Trump declares that “winning over” the South Bronx, a Democrat stronghold, was a “lovefest” with a sizable turnout.

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Donald Trump, the former US president, staged a boisterous rally in the South Bronx on Thursday. In an attempt to win over minority voters, he sought to target one of the most Democratic counties in the country; he claims that the outcome was a huge victory for the campaign.

Days before a Manhattan jury is scheduled to deliberate on felony charges in his criminal hush money trial, the rally in Crotona Park was his first significant campaign appearance in New York since 2016.

Trump spoke to a boisterous assembly of supporters, many of whom were Hispanic and Black. He presented himself as President Joe Biden’s inferior when it came to representing minority groups, particularly when it came to immigration-related matters. Even though the park can only hold 3,500 people, thousands more congregated outside.

“Build the wall” cries from the audience followed Trump’s statement that “the biggest negative impact of the influx of migrants in New York is against our Black population and our Hispanic population who are losing their jobs, losing their housing, and losing everything they can lose.”

Trump stated as he concluded his speech that he was unsure of the welcome he would receive in the Bronx when he got up on Thursday.

“I said, ‘I wonder, will it be hostile or will it be friendly?’” he replied. “It was quite cordial. It was an extravagant romantic event.

Importance of South Bronx’s big turnout for Trump
In New York City, the Bronx has historically been the most Democratic borough. In 2012, Barack Obama received the greatest percentage of votes in the borough—91.2%—of any state. In 2020, Biden secured 83.5% of the borough. Merely 16% of the vote went to Trump.

There were also protests, with union members holding posters that said, “The Bronx says no to Trump,” and the Bronx Democratic Party hosting a counter-event. State Representative Amanda Septimo, a Democrat, denounced Trump’s visit and charged that he was taking advantage of the community’s problems without providing answers.

According to U.S. Census data, the area Trump visited is predominately non-white, with 31% of population being Black and 65% of residents being Hispanic. Roughly 35 percent of people are impoverished.

Trump’s New York campaign for the presidency
While he is confined to New York awaiting his trial, Trump has scheduled a number of local events, including this rally. He’s been to a firehouse, a construction site, and a bodega in Harlem in the last six weeks, but this was his first public gathering in the Bronx.

Rep. Byron Donalds, a Republican from Florida and possible running mate, stated at the rally, “The strategy is to show the voters of the Bronx and New York that this isn’t your typical presidential election.” “To represent everyone and put our nation back on track, Donald Trump is here.”

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During his speech, Trump attacked Biden’s handling of the problems facing New York City, such as the filthy subway system, the abundance of needles lying around, and the difficulties presented by immigrants. Trump claimed, “Joe Biden is not getting the job done for the Bronx.” “Our subways look worse than a Third World country, are filthy and dangerous, and the ceiling tiles are falling down.”

Reactions from Bronx residents to Trump’s meeting are varied as thousands assemble.
There were demonstrations against Trump, despite the fact that many residents agreed with his message. Longtime Bronx residents Margarita Rosario and Muhammad Ali, an immigrant from Bangladesh, expressed their dissatisfaction with the current government and their confidence in Trump’s capacity to change their financial circumstances.

With placards reading, “The Bronx says no to Trump,” some demonstrators accused the president of taking advantage of the problems facing the neighbourhood without providing answers.

The Trump team thinks he can weaken the support that Biden has among Hispanic and Black voters, especially among younger males who are dissatisfied with their economic opportunities. In addition, he made the argument—vehemently disputed by Biden’s allies—that his legal struggles make him accessible to Black voters fed up with the criminal justice system.

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Emmanuel Macron of France on AI: “Work will undergo a revolution, both good and bad”

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In an effort to combat inequality, Emmanuel Macron called for a worldwide wealth tax while applauding France’s digital sector and stating that it has the ability to spur economic growth and social mobility. Emmanuel Macron called technology a “key factor of transformation of our economy” in a CNBC interview. “It provides growth, it provides innovation…it created a lot of opportunities for qualified and unqualified people,” he stated in reference to France’s “Choose France” event.

“Artificial intelligence will be a revolution for work, for good and bad,” declared Emmanuel Macron, acknowledging the effects of AI on the workforce and raising worries about it. Okay, there’s no doubt about it now that productivity will rise.However, it will force us to change a lot of our qualifications.

The president of France expressed his goal for his nation to lead the world in artificial intelligence (AI) and recognised the necessity of “accelerating, innovating, and investing.” He also emphasised the significance of international cooperation in AI regulation, saying that “regulating at the appropriate scale, meaning the global one.”

He stated that we must make sure AI advances mankind rather than acting as a “substitute of humanity.”

“The more AI companies choose to locate in Europe, the more the European governments will find themselves in a similar situation as the governments of the United States and China,” he continued. Our problem with AI is to invest, innovate, and accelerate while still regulating at the right scale.”

After US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen referred to the idea of a wealth tax as “a pity,” he addressed income disparity and stated that “having a wealth tax is a global debate” and that it would be a successful solution.

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Is Joe Biden or Donald Trump? US stock market expert forecasts unexpected outcome of presidential poll based on movement of indices

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Who will win the US election that is set for November 5, 2024? Given the intense rivalry between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, the stock market has historically shown itself to be a trustworthy predictor.

President Joe Biden’s odds of winning re-election vary widely, ranging from less than 38% to as high as 76%, according to recent surveys of well-known prediction markets.

Trump has a 45% chance of winning the poll, compared to Biden’s 44% chance, according to an Economist survey.

The poll prediction’s methodology

In order to obtain understanding of substitute indicators, Mark Hulbert carried out a study that included a range of financial, sentiment, and economic metrics. The real GDP, the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index, the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey, and the U.S. stock market were all included in this analysis, with an emphasis on how each had changed year over year before Election Day.

The stock market was the only one of these indicators to show a statistically significant correlation with the likelihood of victory of the incumbent party at the 95% confidence level.

Analysis results indicate that Joe Biden will win.

His research demonstrates a strong correlation between the stock market’s year-to-date performance and the likelihood that the current party will win the presidency. He demonstrates how this correlation is supported by historical data going back to the Dow Jones Industrial Average’s founding in 1896.

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President Biden’s odds of winning reelection are 58.8% based on this historical correlation and the Dow’s current year-to-date price-only gain of 5.6%. If there are any more gains or losses in the stock market before Election Day, these odds will change appropriately.

Hulbert contends that it’s difficult to make the case that electronic prediction markets have better track records than the stock market, even in the absence of their ambiguity. It is more difficult to identify statistically significant patterns with small sample sizes. As an illustration, the Iowa Electronic Markets (IEM), one of the earliest prediction tools, has only been used in nine presidential elections since its founding in 1988.

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